Imagine a nation on the brink of economic transformation, only to have its hopes dashed by violence and uncertainty. That’s the story of Mozambique, where a $20 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) project—once hailed as a game-changer for one of the world’s poorest countries—was halted in 2021 due to insurgent attacks. But here’s where it gets hopeful: Mozambican President Daniel Chapo now believes the project could restart as early as this month, breathing life into a government desperate for revenue. In a recent interview in Abu Dhabi, Chapo revealed signs of construction preparation already underway, downplaying concerns that Islamic State-linked militants could derail progress again. And this is the part most people miss: While the project promises billions in revenue and debt relief, repeated security setbacks have pushed its first exports to 2029—just as global LNG supply from Qatar and the U.S. is set to surge. Could Mozambique’s window of opportunity be closing?
The stakes couldn’t be higher. The Mozambique LNG project, led by TotalEnergies SE with a 26.5% stake, was once seen as a lifeline for the nation’s struggling economy, still reeling from post-election unrest. Chapo, who took office a year ago, is cautiously optimistic: “If everything goes well, we may resume effectively in late January or early February. We are pleased with the way work is progressing.” However, Total has a condition: the government must approve $4.5 billion in additional costs incurred during the project’s nearly five-year freeze. Here’s where it gets controversial: While both sides have agreed to let development proceed during the approval process, Chapo couldn’t provide a timeline for Mozambique’s audit, citing its complexity. Critics argue this delay could further jeopardize the project’s viability.
Meanwhile, Chapo’s administration is also working with Exxon Mobil Corp. on a neighboring LNG project, aiming for a final investment decision by mid-year. His October visit to Exxon’s Houston headquarters appears to have thawed tensions, with the company lifting its own freeze on activity shortly after. But the elephant in the room remains: Islamist militants in Mozambique’s gas-rich Cabo Delgado province, active since 2017, continue to pose a threat despite efforts by Rwandan forces and foreign troops to quell the insurgency. Bold question for you: Can Mozambique truly secure its LNG projects while this conflict persists, or is it a gamble too risky to take?
Chapo insists the situation is under control, noting that no towns in Cabo Delgado are currently occupied by insurgents and that activity is minimal. “There have been sporadic attacks, mainly at the village level,” he said. “Our security forces are on the ground.” Yet, the United Nations recorded a record number of incidents last year, even if recent attacks have been smaller in scale. Rwandan forces, which have helped push back the insurgency since 2021, will remain through the project’s construction.
As Mozambique stands at this crossroads, the world watches with bated breath. Will this LNG project be the economic savior it was promised to be, or will security and financial hurdles prove insurmountable? What’s your take? Do you think Mozambique can overcome these challenges, or is the risk too great? Let’s discuss in the comments!
